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Geopolitics, risk and opportunity in the oil and gas industry

12-15 June 2017, London, UK

About this course

Geopolitical issues form an important component of the overall uncertainty in which the industry operates around the World and frequently determine the long-term success or failure of specific oil and gas ventures. Risk and opportunity are multi-faceted phenomena impacting all sectors of the oil and gas industry in a variety of ways, with geopolitics being a key facet. It is essential that the less tangible political, geopolitical and extreme risk exposures need to be adequately considered when investment decisions are made.

The course consists of a balanced mix of presentations, interactive exercises, some illuminating video clips and spends the last quarter of each day with up-to-date regional reviews from across the world.

Who should attend?
The course is structured to appeal to a multi-disciplined audience with diverse commercial, technical and professional backgrounds and experience levels from within oil and gas companies and government departments. However, a range of professionals from the industry support and service sectors (e.g. economics, banking, insurance, legal, negotiation and public relations), including governmental and non-governmental agencies, could gain a deeper understanding of the uncertainties facing all sectors of the oil and gas industry.

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Day One: Global Mind-set and Risk Analysis

  • Approaching oil and gas ventures with a global mind-set
  • A common language for risk, opportunity and uncertainty management
  • Less tangible political, fiscal, market and trading uncertainties
  • Quick-look country risk / opportunity assessments 
  • Risks associated with costs of supply 
  • Qualitative approaches to analysing uncertainty, risk and opportunity
  • Catastrophic risks: exposure to low-probability but high-impact events
  • Credit rating agencies and country risk
  • Semi-quantitative approaches to analysing risk

Regional Reviews

  • Central Asia to Europe pipelines
  • Caspian Sea landlocked countries
  • India, United States, Canada and Mexico: unconventional resources

Day Two: Risk Mitigation and Decision-making

  • Protecting the assets: risk mitigation by safety management systems
  • Milestone, holistic and systematic approaches to risk management
  • Consequences of long-term community unrest
  • Defining context and involvement in risk / opportunity management
  • FEED, EPC and construction risk management processes
  • Competitive bidding for contracts
  • Identifying and analysing specific risks – roles for expert panels
  • Performing & interpreting quantitative risk analysis
  • Geopolitics of  Eastern and Western Europe's gas supply                
  • Ranking potential events & constructing risk / opportunity profiles
  • Decision trees aid risk analysis of alternative outcomes

Regional Case Reviews

  • OPEC, GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum) and Reserves
  • North Africa  
  • Russia and Arctic Ocean continental shelf
  • West Africa – oil, gas and LNG

Day Three: Many Facets of Risk

  • Real options for complex and phased decision analysis
  • Politics and risks of emissions targets, climate policies & carbon capture
  • Insurance and contracting strategies to mitigate and transfer risk
  • Terrorism, piracy, kidnapping, extortion and other security risks
  • Devising risk mitigation and opportunity exploitation strategies
  • Risk-sharing and alliances to improve commitment and to spread risks
  • Political conflict & confrontation
  • Risks associated with project finance in petroleum industry
  • Competitive bidding theory versus practice

Regional Case Reviews

  • Colombia – Venezuela - Panama Canal - Trinidad
  • Iran – Qatar-UAE - Oman
  • Iraq (Kurdistan) - Syria – Turkey
  • Central and Eastern Africa

Day Four: Integrated Approaches to Geopolitics and Risk

  • Risks associated with estimating and controlling project costs
  • International oil & gas company performance risks
  • Risk and valuation modelling of oil and gas asset portfolios 
  • Exploiting non-conventional oil: environmental and geopolitical risks
  • Canada’s oil sands: national & corporate risks
  • Relevance of enterprise approach to risk management
  • Cross-border permit unitisation disputes and resolutions
  • National oil/gas company strategies, acquisitions and privatisations
  • Corporate and individual appetites and preferences for risk 
  • NOC and IOC attributes compared
  • Corporate governance issues for the industry: Enron case study

Regional Case Reviews

  • Alaska's stranded Arctic gas
  • Australasia
  • South America - Southern Cone
  • China, Japan and Vietnam

EI Member £3,100 (£3,720 inc VAT) 
Non-member £3,300 (£3,960 inc VAT)

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